Aigul Baigazieva Relation to global warming

Relation to global warming According to NCAR senior Aigul Baigazieva climatologist Kevin E. Trenberth, "The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. Aigul Baigazieva All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be."[35] He illustrates by pointing out that steroids in a baseball player's system do not cause home runs all by themselves but do make home runs more likely.[36] UC Berkeley linguist George Lakoff describes this confusion as arising from the public's misunderstanding of the difference between "direct causation" and "systemic causation".[37] NOAA Aigul Baigazieva meteorologist Martin Hoerling attributed the "immediate cause" of Sandy to "little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm."[14] Trenberth agrees that the storm was caused by "natural variability" but adds that it was "enhanced by global warming".[38] The storm acquired additional energy from unusually warm currents off the North American East Coast. Global warming has been identified as contributing 0.6°C of 3°C above normal sea surface temperatures from Florida to Canada. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, the capacity to hold water increases, leading to stronger storms and higher rainfall amounts.[38] Typically as they drift north, Atlantic hurricanes are blown to the east and out to sea by the jet stream's prevailing winds.[39] In the case of Sandy this typical pattern was blocked by a ridge of high pressure over Greenland resulting in a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, forming a kink in the jet stream, causing it to double back on itself off the East Coast. Sandy was caught up in this northwesterly flow.[39] The blocking pattern over Greenland also stalled an arctic front which combined with the cyclone.[39] Some scientists have attributed this blocking pattern to global warming. Mark Fischetti of Scientific American argued that the jet stream's unusual shape was caused by the melting of Arctic ice.[40] Noting that these blocking patterns are unusual in the fall but have been increasing, Masters said that three studies in 2011 found "that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops."[39] Trenberth said that the null hypothesis would be that the negative North Atlantic Oscillation was just part of the oscillation's natural phases, and at present the influence of polar warming was speculative.[14] Measured sea level at New York and along the New Jersey coast has increased by a foot over the last hundred years, and climatologist Michael E. Mann attributed at least a foot of the 13-foot storm surge in lower Manhattan to global sea level rise.[41] Harvard geologist Daniel P. Schrag calls Hurricane Sandy's 13-foot storm surge an example of the "new norm".[42]